Is Iowa a Red or a Blue State

Election in Iowa

2020 United States presidential election in Iowa

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout	75.77%
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden Party Republican Democratic Home state Florida Delaware Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris Electoral vote 6 0 Popular vote 897,672 759,061 Percentage 53.09% 44.89%
County results Trump  40–50%  50–60%  60–70%  70–80%  80–90% Biden  50–60%  70–80%
President before election Donald Trump Republican Elected President Joe Biden Democratic

The 2020 United States presidential election in Iowa was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.^[1] Iowa voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump of Florida, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence of Indiana against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden of Delaware, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Iowa has six electoral votes in the Electoral College.^[2]

Trump won the state 53.1% to 44.9%. Prior to this election, most news organizations had considered Iowa as either leaning towards Trump or a tossup. As was the case in Ohio, this election has confirmed Iowa's trend from a Midwestern swing state toward the GOP column, the same trend as neighboring Missouri starting in 2008. Iowa had voted Democratic in six of seven elections prior to 2016, with the exception being George W. Bush's narrow plurality win in 2004. In 2016, however, Iowa voted for Trump by an unexpectedly large margin of 9.4%, voting over ten points to the right of the nation overall, indicating a possible realignment of the previously Democratic-leaning state towards the GOP, much as in the case of West Virginia in 2000 and 2004. Even though Biden contested the state,^[3] Trump ended up carrying it by only a slightly reduced margin of 8.15% even as his national margin of defeat grew by 2.4%, confirming this trend.

Biden became the first Democratic nominee since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to win the presidency without carrying Iowa, the first since 1916 to win without carrying Wapello County, as well as the first since FDR in 1940 to win the presidency without carrying Dubuque County and Howard County. Biden improved on Hillary Clinton's margins in the Des Moines and Cedar Rapids metropolitan areas and traditionally conservative western Iowa, the latter which borders Nebraska's 2nd congressional district (Omaha urban area), an electoral vote Trump won in 2016 but lost in 2020. Trump improved on his 2016 performance in populist northeast and south Iowa and became the first Republican to win Iowa in back to back elections since Ronald Reagan in 1980 and 1984. This was the first election since 1988 in which Iowa voted for the loser of both the popular and electoral vote.

Iowa is one of three states that voted twice for Barack Obama and Trump, the other two being Ohio and Florida. This was the first time since 2000 that Iowa backed the losing candidate in a presidential election, and the first time since 2004 that Iowa voted for a different candidate than neighboring Wisconsin.

Analysis [edit]

Per exit polling by the Associated Press, Trump's strength in Iowa came from White Iowans with no college degree, who comprised 62% of the electorate and supported Trump by 58%–40%. Trump also dominated amongst Christian voters, garnering 66% of Protestants, 54% of Catholics, and 76% of born-again/Evangelical Christians. 53% of voters believed Trump was better able to handle international trade.^[4] Trump continued to win the cultural message among voters without college degrees in the Hawkeye State.^[5]

During the primary season, there remained hope among Democrats that Iowa would still be a contestable state.^[6] However, Trump's well-held victory in the state in the general election also saw Republican congressional candidates—from Senator Joni Ernst to two House seats, both held by Democrats (one vacated by Dave Loebsack in Iowa's 2nd district)—winning their election.

Neither Biden nor Trump flipped any counties in the state, although Biden came within 2% of flipping Dallas County, a suburb of Des Moines. Jefferson County was also very close, having gone for Trump by a similarly tight margin four years earlier.

Caucuses [edit]

The state's caucuses, traditionally the first major electoral event in the country, were held on February 3, 2020.^[7]

Republican caucuses [edit]

Incumbent president Donald Trump received about 97 percent of the votes in the Republican caucuses, and received 39 of the GOP delegates, while Bill Weld received enough votes to clinch 1 delegate.^[8]

Counties won by these popular vote results

•  Trump—100%

•  Trump—≥95%

•  Trump—90–95%

•  Trump—85–90%

Congressional districts won by these popular vote results

•  Trump—≥95%

2020 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses^{[9] [10]}

Candidate	Votes	%	Estimated delegates
Donald Trump	31,421	97.14	39
Bill Weld	425	1.31	1
Joe Walsh	348	1.08	0
Other	151	0.47	0
Total	32,345	100%	40

Democratic caucuses [edit]

After a three-day delay in votes being reported, the Iowa Democratic Party declared that Pete Buttigieg had narrowly won the state delegate equivalent (SDE) count of the Democratic caucuses with 26.2 percent. Bernie Sanders came in second with 26.1 percent of the SDEs, despite the fact that he received more popular votes (26.5 percent) than Buttigieg (25.1 percent). Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, and Amy Klobuchar finished in third, fourth, and fifth place, respectively.^[11]

2020 Iowa Democratic presidential caucuses^{[12] [13] [14]}

Candidate	Initial alignment		Final alignment[a]		State delegate equivalents[b]		Pledged national convention delegates[15] [c]
	Votes	%	Votes	%	Number	%
Joe Biden	26,291	14.9	23,605	13.7	340.32	15.8	[d]14
Pete Buttigieg	37,572	21.3	43,209	25.1	562.95	26.2	[e]12
Bernie Sanders	43,581	24.7	45,652	26.5	562.02	26.1	[f]9
Elizabeth Warren	32,589	18.5	34,909	20.3	388.44	18.1	[g]5
Amy Klobuchar	22,454	12.7	21,100	12.2	263.87	12.3	[h]1
Andrew Yang	8,914	5.1	1,758	1.0	21.86	1.0
Tom Steyer	3,061	1.7	413	0.2	6.62	0.3
Michael Bloomberg (did not run yet)[i]	212	0.1	16	0.0	0.21	0.0
Tulsi Gabbard	341	0.2	16	0.0	0.11	0.0
Michael Bennet	164	0.1	4	0.0	0.00	0.0
Deval Patrick	9	0.0	0	0.0	0.00	0.0
John Delaney (withdrawn)	0	0.0	0	0.0	0.00	0.0
Other	155	0.1	198	0.1	0.69	0.0
Uncommitted	1,009	0.6	1,420	0.8	3.73	0.2
Totals[j]	176,352	100%	172,300	100%	2,150.83	100%	41

Libertarian caucuses [edit]

2020 Iowa Libertarian presidential caucuses

February 8, 2020 2024 →

← NH MN →

Candidate Jacob Hornberger Lincoln Chafee Home state Virginia Wyoming Popular vote 133 36 Percentage 47.52% 12.77% Candidate Jo Jorgensen Adam Kokesh Home state South Carolina Indiana Popular vote 18 17 Percentage 6.38% 6.03%

Election results by county  Jacob Hornberger  Lincoln Chafee  Jo Jorgensen  Adam Kokesh  Dan Behrman  John McAfee  Vermin Supreme  Sam Robb  Ken Armstrong  Tie  No votes

Iowa Libertarian presidential caucus, February 8, 2020^[18]

Candidate	Votes	Percentage
Jacob Hornberger	133	47.52%
Lincoln Chafee	36	12.77%
Jo Jorgensen	18	6.38%
Adam Kokesh	17	6.03%
Dan Behrman	14	4.96%
John McAfee	10	3.55%
Vermin Supreme	9	3.19%
Other (write-in)	8	2.84%
None of the above	8	2.84%
Sam Robb	7	2.48%
Max Abramson	6	2.13%
Mark Whitney	4	1.42%
Arvin Vohra	3	1.06%
Ken Armstrong	2	0.71%
Souraya Faas	2	0.71%
Benjamin Leder	1	0.35%
John Monds	1	0.35%
Total	281	100%

The Libertarian Party of Iowa conducted their own caucuses on February 8, offering in-person caucus locations and an online virtual caucus. Only registered Libertarian voters were eligible to participate.^{[19] [20]}

General election [edit]

Final predictions [edit]

Source	Ranking
The Cook Political Report[21]	Tossup
Inside Elections[22]	Tossup
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23]	Lean R
Politico[24]	Tossup
RCP[25]	Tossup
Niskanen[26]	Tossup
CNN[27]	Tossup
The Economist[28]	Tossup
CBS News[29]	Tossup
270towin[30]	Tossup
ABC News[31]	Tossup
NPR[32]	Tossup
NBC News[33]	Tossup
538[34]	Lean R

Polling [edit]

Graphical summary

Aggregate polls

Source of poll aggregation	Dates administered	Dates updated	Joe Biden Democratic	Donald Trump Republican	Other/ Undecided [k]	Margin
270 to Win	October 31 – November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	46.2%	47.8%	6.0%	Trump +1.6
Real Clear Politics	October 23 – November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	45.6%	47.6%	6.8%	Trump +2.0
FiveThirtyEight	until November 2, 2020	November 3, 2020	46.3%	47.6%	6.1%	Trump +1.3
Average			46.0%	47.7%	6.3%	Trump +1.5

Polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size[l]	Margin of error	Donald Trump Republican	Joe Biden Democratic	Jo Jorgensen Libertarian	Howie Hawkins Green	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	Nov 1–2, 2020	871 (V)	–	48%	49%	–	–	2%[m]	1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 20 – November 2, 2020	1,489 (LV)	± 3.5%	51% [n]	48%	–	–	–	–
Change Research	Oct 29 – November 1, 2020	1,084 (LV)	± 3.2%	47%	47%	3%	0%	2%[o]	1%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Oct 29 – November 1, 2020	853 (LV)	± 3.7%	48%	49%	–	–	3%[p]	0%
Data for Progress	Oct 27 – November 1, 2020	951 (LV)	± 3.2%	49%	47%	3%	1%	1%[q]	–
Emerson College	Oct 29–31, 2020	604 (LV)	± 3.9%	49% [r]	47%	–	–	4%	0%
InsiderAdvantage/Center for American Greatness[A]	October 30, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	48%	46%	1%	–	–	6%
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register	Oct 26–29, 2020	814 (LV)	± 3.4%	48%	41%	–	–	8%[s]	2%[t]
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Oct 1–28, 2020	3,005 (LV)	± 2.5%	50%	49%	–	–	–	2%
Quinnipiac University	Oct 23–27, 2020	1,225 (LV)	± 2.8%	47%	46%	–	–	1%[u]	6%
RABA Research/WHO13 News	Oct 21–24, 2020	693 (LV)	± 4%	46%	50%	–	–	2%[m]	1%
Emerson College	Oct 19–21, 2020	435 (LV)	± 4.7%	48% [r]	48%	–	–	4%[v]	0%
RMG Research/PoliticalIQ	Oct 15–21, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47% [w]	47%	–	–	2%[m]	4%
				45%[x]	49%	–	–	2%[m]	4%
				49% [y]	48%	–	–	2%[m]	4%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Oct 18–20, 2020	753 (LV)	± 3.9%	43%	46%	2%	1%	1%[z]	7%[aa]
Insider Advantage/Center for American Greatness[A]	Oct 18–19, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	45%	45%	2%	–	–	8%
Monmouth University	Oct 15–19, 2020	501 (RV)	± 4.4%	48%	47%	1%	0%[ab]	2%[ac]	2%
		501 (LV)[ad]		47%	50%	–	–	–	–
		501 (LV)[ae]		46%	51%	–	–	–	–
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America	Oct 10–13, 2020	200 (LV)	–	50%	44%	–	–	–	–
Data for Progress (D)	Oct 8–11, 2020	822 (LV)	± 3.4%	48%	47%	2%	0%	–	3%
YouGov/CBS	Oct 6–9, 2020	1,035 (LV)	± 3.5%	49%	49%	–	–	2%[af]	0%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[B]	Oct 5–8, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.46%	46%[r]	47%	–	–	3%[ag]	4%[aa]
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Oct 3–6, 2020	756 (LV)	± 3.9%	47%	48%	–	–	4%[v]	1%
Quinnipiac University	Oct 1–5, 2020	1,205 (LV)	± 2.8%	45%	50%	–	–	2%[m]	3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Sep 1–30, 2020	1,276 (LV)	–	52%	46%	–	–	–	2%
Data for Progress (D)	Sep 23–28, 2020	743 (LV)	± 3.6%	47% [w]	44%	1%	1%	–	6%
				50% [ah]	45%	–	–	–	5%
Hart Research Associates/Human Rights Campaign[C]	Sep 24–27, 2020	400 (LV)	± 4.9%	49%	47%	–	–	–	–
RABA Research/WHO13 News	Sep 23–26, 2020	780 (LV)	± 4%	46%	48%	–	–	2%[ai]	4%
Monmouth University	Sep 18–22, 2020	402 (RV)	± 4.9%	50%	44%	2%	0%	1%[aj]	2%
		402 (LV)		49% [ad]	46%	2%	–	2%[ak]	2%
				49% [ae]	46%	2%	–	2%[ak]	2%
Siena College/NYT Upshot	Sep 16–22, 2020	501 (LV)	± 4.99%	42%	45%	2%	0%	1%[z]	10%[aa]
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register	Sep 14–17, 2020	658 (LV)	± 3.8%	47%	47%	–	–	4%[v]	3%
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates/AARP	Aug 30 – September 5, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.5%	47%	45%	–	–	1%[al]	6%
Opinion Insight/American Action Forum[B]	Aug 30 – September 2, 2020	800 (LV)	± 3.46%	51% [r]	43%	3%	1%	–	2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Aug 1–31, 2020	983 (LV)	–	53%	46%	–	–	–	2%
Monmouth University	Jul 30 – August 3, 2020	401 (RV)	± 4.9%	48%	45%	3%	–	<1%[am]	3%
		401 (LV)		48% [ad]	46%	2%		<1%[an]	3%
				47% [ae]	47%	2%		0%[ao]	3%
Data for Progress	Jul 24 – August 2, 2020	1,101 (LV)	–	44% [w]	42%	3%	1%	–	10%
				46% [ah]	45%	–	–	–	9%
David Binder Research/Focus on Rural America	Jul 30–31, 2020	200 (LV)	–	43%	49%	–	–	–	–
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jul 1–31, 2020	1,095 (LV)	–	54%	45%	–	–	–	1%
RMG Research	Jul 27–30, 2020	500 (RV)	± 4.5%	41%	40%	–	–	7%	13%
Public Policy Polling/AFSCME[D]	Jul 23–24, 2020	1,118 (V)	–	48%	47%	–	–	–	6%
Spry Strategies/American Principles Project[E]	Jul 11–16, 2020	701 (LV)	± 3.7%	46%	48%	–	–	–	7%
SurveyMonkey/Axios	Jun 8–30, 2020	455 (LV)	–	50%	48%	–	–	–	2%
Selzer/Des Moines Register	Jun 7–10, 2020	674 (LV)	± 3.8%	44%	43%	–	–	10%[ap]	3%
Civiqs/Daily Kos	Jun 6–8, 2020	865 (RV)	± 3.8%	46%	46%	–	–	7%[aq]	1%
Public Policy Polling/Emily's List[F]	Jun 3–4, 2020	963 (V)	–	48%	47%	–	–	–	5%
Public Policy Polling[1]	Apr 30 – May 1, 2020	1,222 (V)	± 2.8%	48%	46%	–	–	–	6%
GBAO Strategies/PLUS Paid Family Leave	Apr 13–16, 2020	500 (LV)	–	48%	45%	–	–	1%	6%
Selzer/Des Moines Register	Mar 2–5, 2020	667 (LV)	± 3.8%	51%	41%	–	–	–	–
The New York Times/Siena College	Jan 20–23, 2020	1,689 (RV)	± 2.8%	46%	44%	–	–	5%[ar]	6%
Public Policy Polling	Dec 29–31, 2019	964 (V)	–	49%	46%	–	–	–	5%
Emerson College	Dec 7–10, 2019	1,043 (RV)	± 3%	49%	45%	–	–	–	6%
NYT Upshot/Siena College	Oct 25–30, 2019	1,435 (RV)	± 3.1%	45%	44%	–	–	3%	5%
Emerson College	Oct 13–16, 2019	888 (RV)	± 3.2%	51%	49%	–	–	–	–
WPA Intelligence (R)	Apr 27–30, 2019	200 (LV)	± 6.9%	49%	44%	–	–	–	5%
Emerson College	Mar 21–24, 2019	707 (RV)	± 3.6%	47%	53%	–	–	–	–
Emerson College	Jan 30 – February 2, 2019	831 (RV)	± 3.4%	49%	51%	–	–	–	–

Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Michael Bloomberg (D) Other Undecided Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% [as] 34% – – The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 39% 7%[at] 8% Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Cory Booker (D) Undecided Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 52% 48% – Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Pete Buttigieg (D) Other Undecided The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 45% 44% 4%[au] 7% Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) – 48% 47% – 5% Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 46% 45% – 9% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 45% 41% 3% 8% Donald Trump vs. Kirsten Gillibrand Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kirsten Gillibrand (D) Undecided Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 54% 46% – Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Kamala Harris (D) Undecided Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 54% 46% – Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47% – Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Amy Klobuchar (D) Other Undecided The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 46% 41% 5%[ar] 8% Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Beto O'Rourke (D) Undecided Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 53% 47% – Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Other Undecided Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 53% 41% – – The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 48% 42% 4%[av] 6% Public Policy Polling Dec 29–31, 2019 964 (V) – 49% 44% – 7% Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% – 7% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 43% 3% 4% Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 49% 51% – – Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 49% 51% – – Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 51% 50% – – Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Other Undecided Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. Mar 2–5, 2020 667 (LV) ± 3.8% 52% [as] 40% – – The New York Times/Siena College Jan 20–23, 2020 1,689 (RV) ± 2.8% 47% 42% 5%[ar] 7% Public Policy Polling Jan 2–4, 2020 964 (V) – 49% 44% – 7% Emerson College Dec 7–10, 2019 1,043 (RV) ± 3% 50% 43% ± 3% 7% NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 25–30, 2019 1,435 (RV) ± 3.1% 47% 40% 2% 7% Emerson College Oct 13–16, 2019 888 (RV) ± 3.2% 51% 49% – – Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 51% 49% – – Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 52% 48% – –

Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Sherrod Brown Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Sherrod Brown (D) Undecided Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 55% 46% – with Donald Trump and Nancy Pelosi Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Nancy Pelosi (D) Undecided Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 55% 45% – with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Bernie Sanders (D) Howard Schultz (I) Undecided Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 47% 46% 8% – with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Elizabeth Warren (D) Howard Schultz (I) Undecided Emerson College Mar 21–24, 2019 707 (RV) ± 3.6% 48% 45% 7% – Emerson College Jan 30 – Feb 2, 2019 831 (RV) ± 3.4% 49% 40% 11% – with Donald Trump and generic Democrat Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[l] Margin of error Donald Trump (R) Generic Democrat Undecided Public Policy Polling/End Citizens United[G] Dec 13–15, 2019 944 (V) – 47% 49% 3% Public Policy Polling Apr 29–30, 2019 780 (V) ± 3.5% 48% 48% –

Results [edit]

Results by county [edit]

County	Donald Trump Republican		Joe Biden Democratic		Jo Jorgensen Libertarian		Other votes		Total votes
	%	#	%	#	%	#	%	#
Adair	69.83%	2,917	28.68%	1,198	0.84%	35	0.65%	27	4,177
Adams	70.83%	1,530	27.31%	590	1.25%	27	0.60%	13	2,160
Allamakee	63.80%	4,735	34.71%	2,576	0.96%	71	0.54%	40	7,422
Appanoose	69.24%	4,512	29.02%	1,891	1.10%	72	0.63%	41	6,516
Audubon	67.11%	2,295	31.32%	1,071	0.94%	32	0.64%	22	3,420
Benton	62.75%	9,188	35.24%	5,160	1.27%	186	0.74%	108	14,642
Black Hawk	44.51%	29,640	53.53%	35,647	1.08%	722	0.88%	584	66,593
Boone	56.68%	8,695	41.09%	6,303	1.29%	198	0.94%	144	15,340
Bremer	57.02%	8,294	40.96%	5,958	1.27%	185	0.75%	109	14,546
Buchanan	59.59%	6,420	38.70%	4,169	0.89%	96	0.83%	89	10,774
Buena Vista	61.91%	5,056	36.26%	2,961	0.81%	66	1.03%	84	8,167
Butler	68.44%	5,542	29.93%	2,424	0.84%	68	0.79%	64	8,098
Calhoun	70.16%	3,689	27.96%	1,470	1.12%	59	0.76%	40	5,258
Carroll	68.26%	7,737	30.47%	3,454	0.60%	68	0.67%	76	11,335
Cass	68.29%	4,969	30.25%	2,201	0.84%	61	0.62%	45	7,276
Cedar	57.56%	6,161	40.52%	4,337	1.16%	124	0.76%	81	10,703
Cerro Gordo	52.28%	12,442	45.97%	10,941	0.82%	196	0.93%	222	23,801
Cherokee	68.96%	4,495	29.70%	1,936	0.74%	48	0.60%	39	6,518
Chickasaw	64.97%	4,308	33.68%	2,233	0.71%	47	0.65%	43	6,631
Clarke	67.32%	3,144	31.39%	1,466	0.73%	34	0.56%	26	4,670
Clay	68.42%	6,137	29.68%	2,662	1.13%	101	0.77%	69	8,969
Clayton	63.64%	6,106	34.81%	3,340	0.85%	82	0.69%	66	9,594
Clinton	54.13%	13,361	43.81%	10,812	1.27%	314	0.79%	194	24,681
Crawford	67.85%	4,854	31.03%	2,220	0.59%	42	0.53%	38	7,154
Dallas	49.96%	27,987	47.98%	26,879	1.33%	744	0.73%	412	56,022
Davis	73.92%	3,032	24.70%	1,013	0.73%	30	0.66%	27	4,102
Decatur	68.74%	2,615	29.44%	1,120	0.76%	29	1.05%	40	3,804
Delaware	66.64%	6,666	31.56%	3,157	0.87%	87	0.93%	93	10,003
Des Moines	53.08%	10,592	44.56%	8,893	1.38%	275	0.98%	196	19,956
Dickinson	66.15%	7,438	32.56%	3,661	0.82%	92	0.47%	53	11,244
Dubuque	50.47%	27,214	47.58%	25,657	1.03%	556	0.93%	499	53,926
Emmet	67.28%	3,265	31.32%	1,520	0.74%	36	0.66%	32	4,853
Fayette	60.33%	6,145	37.65%	3,835	1.00%	102	1.02%	104	10,186
Floyd	58.91%	4,732	39.49%	3,172	0.78%	63	0.81%	65	8,032
Franklin	66.71%	3,422	31.70%	1,626	0.88%	45	0.72%	37	5,130
Fremont	70.29%	2,711	28.00%	1,080	0.96%	37	0.75%	29	3,857
Greene	63.73%	3,223	34.98%	1,769	0.71%	36	0.57%	29	5,057
Grundy	67.74%	4,929	30.32%	2,206	1.20%	87	0.74%	54	7,276
Guthrie	67.05%	4,272	31.16%	1,985	1.24%	79	0.55%	35	6,371
Hamilton	62.39%	4,956	35.79%	2,843	0.89%	71	0.92%	73	7,943
Hancock	71.13%	4,390	27.27%	1,683	0.79%	49	0.81%	50	6,172
Hardin	65.08%	5,850	33.11%	2,976	1.17%	105	0.65%	58	8,989
Harrison	68.29%	5,569	29.92%	2,440	1.04%	85	0.75%	61	8,155
Henry	65.19%	6,507	32.81%	3,275	1.28%	128	0.72%	72	9,982
Howard	63.07%	3,127	35.74%	1,772	0.46%	23	0.73%	36	4,958
Humboldt	71.69%	3,819	27.07%	1,442	0.73%	39	0.51%	27	5,327
Ida	74.82%	2,880	23.82%	917	0.70%	27	0.65%	25	3,849
Iowa	61.68%	6,009	36.41%	3,547	1.05%	102	0.87%	84	9,742
Jackson	62.33%	6,940	36.18%	4,029	0.71%	79	0.78%	87	11,135
Jasper	59.87%	12,084	38.33%	7,737	1.03%	207	0.77%	156	20,184
Jefferson	49.59%	4,443	48.21%	4,319	1.06%	95	1.14%	102	8,959
Johnson	27.34%	22,925	70.57%	59,177	1.15%	964	0.94%	785	83,851
Jones	59.81%	6,572	38.34%	4,213	1.07%	118	0.78%	86	10,989
Keokuk	71.60%	3,797	26.66%	1,414	0.96%	51	0.77%	41	5,303
Kossuth	69.03%	6,275	29.66%	2,696	0.67%	61	0.64%	58	9,090
Lee	58.40%	9,773	39.09%	6,541	1.43%	240	1.08%	180	16,734
Linn	41.87%	53,364	55.61%	70,874	1.58%	2,015	0.94%	1,205	127,458
Louisa	65.64%	3,500	32.37%	1,726	1.26%	67	0.73%	39	5,332
Lucas	70.99%	3,287	27.73%	1,284	0.65%	30	0.63%	29	4,630
Lyon	83.16%	5,707	15.55%	1,067	0.82%	56	0.48%	33	6,863
Madison	66.24%	6,507	31.90%	3,134	1.26%	124	0.60%	59	9,824
Mahaska	72.76%	8,297	25.38%	2,894	1.18%	134	0.69%	79	11,404
Marion	65.84%	12,663	32.12%	6,178	1.21%	233	0.82%	158	19,232
Marshall	52.77%	9,571	45.08%	8,176	1.19%	216	0.95%	173	18,136
Mills	67.55%	5,585	30.33%	2,508	1.21%	100	0.90%	75	8,268
Mitchell	63.16%	3,677	35.26%	2,053	0.96%	56	0.62%	36	5,822
Monona	68.70%	3,248	29.76%	1,407	0.76%	36	0.79%	37	4,728
Monroe	72.77%	2,975	26.37%	1,078	0.51%	21	0.34%	14	4,088
Montgomery	68.69%	3,659	29.72%	1,583	0.94%	50	0.66%	35	5,327
Muscatine	52.36%	10,823	45.34%	9,372	1.42%	293	0.89%	183	20,671
O'Brien	77.62%	5,861	20.78%	1,569	1.02%	77	0.58%	44	7,551
Osceola	80.83%	2,690	18.06%	601	0.54%	18	0.57%	19	3,328
Page	70.66%	5,319	27.71%	2,086	1.01%	76	0.62%	47	7,528
Palo Alto	67.97%	3,370	30.64%	1,519	0.87%	43	0.52%	26	4,958
Plymouth	73.95%	10,492	24.63%	3,494	0.79%	112	0.63%	90	14,188
Pocahontas	73.92%	2,826	24.40%	933	0.97%	37	0.71%	27	3,823
Polk	41.27%	106,800	56.52%	146,250	1.28%	3,322	0.93%	2,383	258,755
Pottawattamie	57.38%	26,247	40.61%	18,575	1.21%	552	0.81%	370	45,744
Poweshiek	55.79%	5,657	42.47%	4,306	0.89%	90	0.86%	87	10,140
Ringgold	72.51%	1,968	26.12%	709	0.66%	18	0.70%	19	2,714
Sac	73.37%	4,061	25.09%	1,389	0.85%	47	0.69%	38	5,535
Scott	47.17%	43,683	50.68%	46,926	1.21%	1,124	0.94%	866	92,599
Shelby	69.12%	4,697	28.83%	1,959	1.22%	83	0.82%	56	6,795
Sioux	82.31%	15,680	15.85%	3,019	0.89%	170	0.96%	182	19,051
Story	39.85%	20,340	57.16%	29,175	1.81%	924	0.78%	599	51,038
Tama	58.61%	5,303	39.53%	3,577	0.96%	87	0.90%	81	9,048
Taylor	75.81%	2,463	22.96%	746	0.52%	17	0.71%	23	3,249
Union	64.83%	4,010	33.32%	2,061	0.99%	61	0.86%	53	6,185
Van Buren	75.42%	2,859	23.08%	875	0.61%	23	0.90%	34	3,791
Wapello	60.87%	9,516	37.24%	5,821	1.28%	200	0.61%	96	15,633
Warren	57.29%	17,782	40.51%	12,574	1.39%	430	0.82%	253	31,039
Washington	59.25%	6,971	38.77%	4,561	1.22%	144	0.76%	89	11,765
Wayne	75.20%	2,338	23.38%	727	0.64%	20	0.77%	24	3,109
Webster	61.37%	10,938	37.11%	6,613	0.72%	128	0.80%	143	17,822
Winnebago	62.09%	3,707	35.76%	2,135	1.21%	72	0.94%	56	5,970
Winneshiek	51.68%	6,235	46.56%	5,617	0.93%	112	0.83%	100	12,064
Woodbury	57.63%	25,736	41.23%	18,704	0.96%	435	1.07%	487	45,362
Worth	61.97%	2,738	36.12%	1,596	0.86%	38	1.04%	46	4,418
Wright	66.13%	4,136	31.92%	1,996	1.12%	70	0.83%	52	6,254

Results by congressional district [edit]

Trump won all 4 of the state's congressional districts, including one that elected a Democrat.

District	Trump	Biden	Representative
1st	50.79%	47.38%	Abby Finkenauer
			Ashley Hinson
2nd	51.10%	47.10%	Dave Loebsack
			Mariannette Miller-Meeks
3rd	49.15%	49.02%	Cindy Axne
4th	62.68%	35.73%	Steve King
			Randy Feenstra

See also [edit]

• United States presidential elections in Iowa
• 2020 Iowa elections
• 2020 United States presidential election
• 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
• 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
• 2020 United States elections

Notes [edit]

1. ^ Final vote after votes for candidates below the 15% viability threshold in each precinct are reallocated to other viable candidates.
2. ^ The official results included four decimal digits.
3. ^ In Iowa, the presidential caucuses only are the first determining step for the delegate distribution, the final step are the decisions on the district conventions and the much later state convention. According to the provisions set by the Iowa Democratic Party's "Delegate Selection Plan", statewide delegates preliminarily awarded to other candidates had to be reallocated at the state convention on June 13, as their pledged candidates had dropped out, while the already early decided district delegates remain fixed.
4. ^ Originally placed fourth with 6 delegates. 8 of the 12 statewide delegates initially awarded to Buttigieg (2), Sanders (3) and Warren (3), who had withdrawn in the meantime, had to be reallocated to Biden as the sole remaining viable contender and were added to his own 2 statewide delegates at the state convention on June 13.^{[15] [16]}
5. ^ Original winner with 14 delegates. Due to his withdrawal in March, 2 of the 5 statewide delegates mathematically won by Buttigieg were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.^{[15] [16]}
6. ^ Original runner-up with 12 delegates. Due to his withdrawal in April, 3 of the 4 statewide delegates mathematically won by Sanders were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.^{[15] [16]}
7. ^ Originally placed third with 8 delegates. Due to her withdrawal in March, all of the 3 statewide delegates mathematically won by Warren were reallocated to Biden at the state convention on June 13.^{[15] [16]}
8. ^ Falling short of 15% on state level and in three of four districts, Klobuchar only surpassed the threshold in one district and won 1 delegate there.
9. ^ Michael Bloomberg officially announced his candidacy for the Democratic nomination on November 24, 2019, but chose not to contest the first four nominating contests of the primary season, including the Iowa caucuses.^[17]
10. ^ Per the Iowa Democratic Party official report.^[13]
11. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
12. ^ ^{a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o} Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
13. ^ ^{a b c d e f} "Someone else" with 2%
14. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
15. ^ "Don't recall" with 2%
16. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
17. ^ "Other candidate or write-in" with 1%
18. ^ ^{a b c d} With voters who lean towards a given candidate
19. ^ "Refused" with 5%; "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 0%
20. ^ Includes "Do not remember"
21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
22. ^ ^{a b c} "Someone else" with 4%
23. ^ ^{a b c} Standard VI response
24. ^ Results generated with high Democratic turnout model
25. ^ Results generated with high Republican turnout model
26. ^ ^{a b} "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 0%
27. ^ ^{a b c} Includes "Refused"
28. ^ No voters
29. ^ "Another candidate" and "No one" with 1%
30. ^ ^{a b c} With a likely voter turnout model featuring higher turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
31. ^ ^{a b c} With a likely voter turnout model featuring lower turnout than in the 2016 presidential election
32. ^ "Other third party" with 2%
33. ^ "One of the other candidates" with 2%; West (B) with 1%
34. ^ ^{a b} If the only candidates were Biden and Trump
35. ^ "Other candidate" with 2%
36. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%; "No one" with no voters
37. ^ ^{a b} "Hawkins/Other" with 2%
38. ^ Would not vote with 1%
39. ^ "Other" and "No-one" with <1%
40. ^ "Other" with <1%
41. ^ "Other" with 0%
42. ^ "Someone else" with 9%; would not vote with 1%
43. ^ "Someone else" with 7%
44. ^ ^{a b c} Other with 2%; would not vote with 3%
45. ^ ^{a b} Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
46. ^ Other with 3%; would not vote with 4%
47. ^ Other with 1%; would not vote with 3%
48. ^ Other and would not vote with 2%

Partisan clients

1. ^ ^{a b} The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization
2. ^ ^{a b} The American Action Forum is a 501 organisation which usually supports Republican candidates
3. ^ The Human Rights Campaign endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
4. ^ AFSCME endorsed Biden prior to this poll's sampling period
5. ^ This poll's sponsor is the American Principles Project, a 501(c)(4) organization that supports the Republican Party.
6. ^ Emily's List is an organisation that supports Democratic female candidates
7. ^ End Citizens United PAC has exclusively endorsed Democratic candidates

References [edit]

1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
3. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne. "Joe Biden, Mike Pence to campaign in Iowa this week, underscoring competitive presidential race". Des Moines Register . Retrieved January 18, 2021.
4. ^ "Iowa Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
5. ^ "Down on the farm with Trump". Bleeding Heartland. April 16, 2020. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
6. ^ Alberta, Tim. "Whoever Wins Iowa, They Won't Be Back". POLITICO . Retrieved January 4, 2021.
7. ^ Pfannenstiel, Brianne (August 25, 2018). "Countdown begins to 2020: Date of Iowa Democratic caucuses set for Feb. 3". The Des Moines Register . Retrieved January 3, 2019.
8. ^ "Live Results:Iowa Republican Caucuses". The New York Times. February 3, 2020. Retrieved February 3, 2020.
9. ^ "Iowa Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
10. ^ "2020 Iowa Republican caucuses results". The Washington Post . Retrieved March 12, 2022.
11. ^ "Iowa caucus results: Buttigieg, Sanders in a near tie, with 100% of results published". USA TODAY. February 6, 2020. Retrieved February 7, 2020.
12. ^ "Live: Iowa Caucus Results 2020". The New York Times . Retrieved February 27, 2020.
13. ^ ^{a b} "Iowa democratic Caucus Results". Des Moines Register . Retrieved July 15, 2021.
14. ^ Levy, Adam; Merica, Dan (March 1, 2020). "Iowa Democratic Party certifies Buttigieg's Iowa lead amid Sanders challenge". CNN . Retrieved March 1, 2020.
15. ^ ^{a b c d e} "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Iowa Democrat". The Green Papers . Retrieved July 4, 2020.
16. ^ ^{a b c d} "Iowa Democratic Party Announces Delegation to National Convention". iowademocrats.org. June 13, 2020. Retrieved August 20, 2020.
17. ^ Gonyea, Don (February 14, 2020). "Mike Bloomberg Storms Super Tuesday States, Pledging To 'Get It Done'". NPR . Retrieved December 12, 2021.
18. ^ Howe, Joseph (February 8, 2020). "Libertarian Party Of Iowa Presidential Caucus Winner And Results". Libertarian Party of Iowa . Retrieved February 8, 2020.
19. ^ "Libertarian's announce caucus results". Knoxville Journal Express. February 10, 2020. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
20. ^ McDaniel, Tiffany (February 10, 2020). "Low voter turnout at the Iowa Libertarian Party Caucus". The Oskaloosa Herald . Retrieved February 18, 2020.
21. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report . Retrieved May 21, 2019.
22. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com . Retrieved May 21, 2019.
23. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org . Retrieved November 2, 2020.
24. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
25. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
26. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
27. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN . Retrieved June 16, 2020.
28. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist . Retrieved July 7, 2020.
29. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
30. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
31. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
32. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org . Retrieved August 3, 2020.
33. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News . Retrieved August 6, 2020.
34. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight . Retrieved August 14, 2020.
35. ^ "Election Canvass Summary" (PDF). Iowa Secretary of State . Retrieved November 30, 2020.

Further reading [edit]

• Summary: State Laws on Presidential Electors (PDF), Washington DC: National Association of Secretaries of State, August 2020, Iowa
• David Wasserman (October 6, 2020), "The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble", Nytimes.com . (Describes bellwether Marshall County, Iowa)

External links [edit]

• "League of Women Voters of Iowa". (State affiliate of the U.S. League of Women Voters)
• Government Documents Round Table of the American Library Association, "Iowa", Voting & Elections Toolkits
• "Iowa: Election Tools, Deadlines, Dates, Rules, and Links", Vote.org, Oakland, CA

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Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Iowa#:~:text=Elected%20President&text=Iowa%20had%20voted%20Democratic%20in,narrow%20plurality%20win%20in%202004.

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